To Be Human Is To Be Fallible

By Daniel L. Uffner, Jr.

In the late 1890s, the head of the U.S. Patent Office declared that his department should be closed, because nothing more of importance could be invented.  During the next 100 plus years, more things have been invented than during the entire, prior, period of mankind. 

He was not the first to make an unequivocal statement about the limits of man’s ability to change and improve things, nor will he be the last. History is full of similar statements issued by learned and respected intellectuals, Yet, humans, who had not heard of their supposed limitations continued to open new vistas for the benefit of us all.

It is fun to recall similar statements that had been made with no shred of doubt, but, from our perspective, seem pompously ridiculous.

1825: What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives traveling twice as fast as stagecoaches? The Quarterly Review, England.

1838: Men might as well project a voyage to the Moon as attempt to employ steam navigation against the stormy North Atlantic Ocean. Dr. Dionysus Lardner, professor of natural philosophy and astronomy, University College, London.

1865: Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.  Editorial in the Boston Post

1878: When the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it and no more be heard of. Erasmus Wilson, professor at Oxford University

1895: Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist

1932: There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.  Albert Einstein

1943: I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM

1949: Where a calculator on the ENIAC (the first workable computer) is equipped with 19,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may only have 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons. March issue of Popular Mechanics

1977: There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.  Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Corp.

2006: The Arctic is experiencing faster melting. If this were to continue, sea level world-wide would go up twenty feet. Al Gore in “Inconvenient Truth”

The UN committee studying climate change subsequently stated that the sea level would probably rise 12 to 24 inches. Global warming enthusiasts rely on some observations, but primarily on computer models for their conclusions.  Unfortunately, they have been contradicted by record cold readings, which have been breached world-wide in recent years -- in China, Argentina, the U.S. and elsewhere.

Now, in February, 2010, most of the federal government, including Congress, is closed down due to record snows in Washington, D.C. Legislators could best use the time weighing the benefits and disadvantages of the proposed Cap and Trade bill.

During the last few months, revelations have surfaced that some of the climate researchers have withheld some key information that disagreed with their theory that warming is man-made rather than a naturally occurring weather cycle; a scientist has disavowed a statement attributed to him that the snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro would be gone by 2035; and a thesis written by a graduate student several years ago, without having peer review, has been relied upon in computer models, thus further undercutting their reliability.

As candidate Obama stated, a Cap and Trade Bill would cause a “spike” in electric utility costs for each household by an average of $3,000 a year, every year. It would also affect every business, raising the cost of products and services, which would have to be passed on to consumers in higher prices.  Certainly, it would increase unemployment, if for no other reason than to make American products less competitive compared to imported goods, causing more firms to close.

For those reasons, Cap and Trade is bad legislation and should be voted down, especially in these times of double digit unemployment and under-employment.

Note: Most of the quotes above were gleaned from an article written circa 1995 by David Grimes, who was a columnist for the Sarasota Herald Tribune.